Weekend Box Office 6/9

Order66 · Jun 8, 2006

YTD: 3-1
Units: +4

Play:

Cars under 80 million (-160) <3.2/2> WSEX

Line is a little high as Pixar has yet to debut a movie over 70.5 million on an opening weekend. Last time out, Pixar debuted the superhero movie The Incredibles to its best opening ever (70.47 million in 3,933 theaters). Cars is set to debut in about the same number of theaters but unlike that movie, Cars will be playing strictly to a family audience. While movies like this do very well, they are rarely huge (with the exception of Shrek 2) in their openings. Also, with Over the Hedge being out, that should also take away some of the audience that Pixar is vying for. As a customer, this is the first Pixar movie in a long time that I have not been all that excited about and I'm hoping other people feel the same way. I don't see this movie breaking any new ground in box office receipts and should debut with around 70 million, like the previous two Pixar movies. Good luck all!

joethor · Jun 8, 2006

o/u now at 77.5. agree with your analysis 80 is awful high.

Order66 · Jun 9, 2006

Yea, the reason why the line was set so high in my opinion, is that the last three movies given lines have all gone over, thus the books set the line to try to draw people to the over with an inflated line. However, with box office betting, people are generally smart and I've noticed the way the line moves in the first 30 minutes is generally the way the box office will swing, whether it be over or under. Every once in a while a high chalk will lose, but most times if you get on it before the line moves, you are golden. At 77.5 million however, I think it is a no play, not because I think it'll go over at that line (I still think the under hits), but because some of the value is gone on the under. Good luck if you decide to play it.

3DGlasses · Jun 9, 2006

This movie is rated G... so everyone will be able to get in and see it.

anyway... you can get +110 on under 77.5 at wsex... and +115 on over 77 - 85 at Intertops. For sure winner!!

3DGlasses · Jun 9, 2006

3DGlasses said:
This movie is rated G... so everyone will be able to get in and see it.

anyway... you can get +110 on under 77.5 at wsex... and +115 on over 77 - 85 at Intertops. For sure winner!!

or under 77 +147 at Pinny and 77 - 85 +115 at Intertop. Even a better play. I love a forsure thing!

Presto · Jun 9, 2006

Order66 said:
YTD: 3-1
Units: +4

Play:

Cars under 80 million (-160) <3.2/2> WSEX

Line is a little high as Pixar has yet to debut a movie over 70.5 million on an opening weekend. Last time out, Pixar debuted the superhero movie The Incredibles to its best opening ever (70.47 million in 3,933 theaters). Cars is set to debut in about the same number of theaters but unlike that movie, Cars will be playing strictly to a family audience. While movies like this do very well, they are rarely huge (with the exception of Shrek 2) in their openings. Also, with Over the Hedge being out, that should also take away some of the audience that Pixar is vying for. As a customer, this is the first Pixar movie in a long time that I have not been all that excited about and I'm hoping other people feel the same way. I don't see this movie breaking any new ground in box office receipts and should debut with around 70 million, like the previous two Pixar movies. Good luck all!

Appreciate your input, and agree most people will not be in a mad rush to see this film. The line at Pinny is now 77 mil. under +147. If I had money there, that is a line I would take. However, my dough is over at Greek and they have 78.5 mil. under/over -115. Good number with a crap price. Oh well.

joethor · Jun 9, 2006

if it has the same psa as finding nemo did, it would hit 82.5, but thats a big if.official theater count is 3985. i think i will sit this one out and wait for tokyo drift. bol order

Order66 · Jun 10, 2006

Update:

Cars debuted with 19.3 million on Friday, so barring a huge uptick in sales on Saturday and Sunday, this looks to be another winner. If I get the time, I'll post the weekend estimates tomorrow.

Bennyshoe · Jun 11, 2006

Man I missed this thread. Would have liked to add my input. But I was on the under as well. I got it at 77 at Pinny. I couldn't believe how much the over would be pounded. The juice would go up one moment then later in the day and then later it'd be back to even.

Looking really good for the under. Hope to see what the lines are for next weekend's movie.

Bennyshoe · Jun 11, 2006

Estimate 62.8 mil for the weekend. Easy winner!

Order66 · Jun 11, 2006

Yea, this movie has to be a bit disappointing to Pixar as it failed top both Finding Nemo and The Incredibles. Still, it was an easy winner, which makes it four in a row now. Hopefully the few followers I have cashed lol.

joethor · Jun 11, 2006

excellent job order. looking forward to next weeks lines. tokyo drift and nacho libre o/u 20?

Order66 · Jun 12, 2006

Yea, I honestly have no clue about next weeks lines, but out of the four movies coming out, one of the lines will be way off and that will be the one I will be after. Early prediction is over on FF3, under on Garfield and both Nacho Libre and The Lake House will depend on the lines given.

JamesTrout · Jun 15, 2006

I hope TF&TF:TD does worse than $24 million.

3DGlasses · Jun 15, 2006

It will.

the LAKE HOUSE will dissapoint... mainly because The Break-up will take away from its total. I like 10million - 15 million +115 at Intertops.

Also took over 18 million Fast furious at wsex.

joethor · Jun 15, 2006

wsex has tokyo drift at 18. the over started at -120 and quickly shot up to -180.

Order66 · Jun 16, 2006

3D - I have to disagree on The Lake House disappointing. This year, romance movies have been severely lacking and the last movie that comes to mind that seems even close to this is The Notebook, and we all know how well that movie did. Both movies are based on best selling novels, and I think The Lake House will do better in terms of opening weekends than The Notebook because of better starpower. Don't get me wrong, I hope you cash your wager, I'm just giving you my personal opinion on the matter. Good luck!

JamesTrout · Jun 16, 2006

Hmmm. The line for Tokyo Drift has gone from o/u $24m to o/u $20m at The Greek and the 'under $20m' has dropped from (-140) to (-200).

What do the sharps know!?

Mindware · Jun 16, 2006

Order66 said:
Both movies are based on best selling novels, and I think The Lake House will do better in terms of opening weekends than The Notebook because of better starpower.

Better Starpower than The Notebook? Yes, but hardly. Keanu Reeves isn't exactly a boxoffice magnet, neither is Bullock. Also, I don't know where you heard that the Lake House was based on a best selling novel, but it's actually a remake of a Korean film called Il Mare. GL with your bet regardless

Order66 · Jun 16, 2006

I didn't bet on it, just providing insight. While I will agree neither is a huge box office draw, they both share nine 100 million dollar movies, the two leads in The Notebook hadn't even been in that movies combined upon its release. I think that is much better starpower. I thought for sure on the T.V. spots for the movie they said it was based on a novel, although I may have been mistaken and apologize.